SARS-CoV-2 and Subacute Thyroiditis: A Case Report and Literature Review.

Introduction: Subacute thyroiditis (SAT) is an inflammatory disorder of the thyroid gland, usually triggered by a recent viral or bacterial infection of upper respiratory tracts. The disease is characterized by neck pain radiating to the ears and thyroid gland tenderness. In most cases, it is associated with a transient episode of hyperthyroidism, which is followed by euthyroidism. However, sometimes, it manifests itself with hypothyroidism. Case Presentation. The present report described a case of SAT who was a 55-year-old man presenting to an endocrine clinic with tachycardia, tremor, and neck pain radiating to the jaw and ears. His thyroid function test revealed thyrotoxicosis, and thyroid ultrasound findings were consistent with SAT. The patient reported a history of COVID-19 about 15 days before presentation, which was confirmed by a positive PCR test for SARS-CoV-2. Conclusions: It is of great importance for physicians to note that thyrotoxicosis in a patient with a recent history of COVID-19 can be due to SAT. Therefore, they should not begin antithyroid drugs without ordering proper investigations.

Complex model calibration through emulation, a worked example for a stochastic epidemic model.

Uncertainty quantification is a formal paradigm of statistical estimation that aims to account for all uncertainties inherent in the modelling process of real-world complex systems. The methods are directly applicable to stochastic models in epidemiology, however they have thus far not been widely used in this context. In this paper, we provide a tutorial on uncertainty quantification of stochastic epidemic models, aiming to facilitate the use of the uncertainty quantification paradigm for practitioners with other complex stochastic simulators of applied systems. We provide a formal workflow including the important decisions and considerations that need to be taken, and illustrate the methods over a simple stochastic epidemic model of UK SARS-CoV-2 transmission and patient outcome. We also present new approaches to visualisation of outputs from sensitivity analyses and uncertainty quantification more generally in high input and/or output dimensions.